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by Closi
2061 days ago
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> I think it’s certainly more grounded in reality if you realize 538 is basically finished if they miss the mark again. What does missing the mark mean though? In 2016 they proposed a c30% chance that Donald would win, and a 70% chance Hillary would win. Does that mean they were wrong? Not really, because that's how probabilistic forecasting works - and they stated their confidence interval - they were 70% confident that Hillary would win, but thought there was a 30% chance Donald would win. |
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