[krona]

As with any vaccine, you'd need about 80% of the population to vaccinate in order for herd immunity to kick in.

Wrong. The herd immunity threshold (HIT) for influenza is 33%-44%. HITs are different for every infectious disease. Current estimates for COVID-19 are 60-75%.

[tgb]

Isn't that a different number, though? You have to factor in that vaccines aren't 100% effective at preventing disease. Wikipedia spells it out in the vaccine section here [1]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity

[krona]

True but you're also not taking in to account that far less than 100% of the population appear susceptible to the virus, especially in e.g. Japan and Germany, for various reasons.

[wbl]

Do you have a credible source? I've heard these claims multiple times and they done seem to be borne out by events or supported by repudiable epidemiologist.

[krona]

Here is a summary of at least 6 articles on pre existing t-cell immunity. https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563

Furthermore, I know of at least 3 leading statisticians that hypothesized (very early on) that the variance of infection trends pointed to pre-existing immunity in various populations. The evidence supporting this is mounting.

[russholmes]

The BMJ is not a credible source, it is the Daily Mail of medical journals. The author of that article, Peter Doshi, has form:

"I think the first thing we to review is who is Peter Doshi? And why is he so insistent on getting this data?

Peter Doshi received his BA in anthropology from Brown University, MA in East Asian studies from Harvard University, and Ph.D. in history, anthropology, and science, technology and society from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Those would be fine credentials for someone who is going to teach history or anthropology."

https://www.skepticalraptor.com/skepticalraptorblog.php/pete...

[krona]

I didn't cite the BMJ as the source, but nice try. The sources include Cell and Nature, but unfortunately for you that might mean having to read something in order to discount it, which you seem unprepared for.

[krona]

For the lazy (cited 556 times as of now): https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30610-3.pdf

[wbl]

That paper looks at 40 people and has no idea what the clinical correlates of the non-spike responses are because no one has any idea. You cannot take that paper and say that a substantial factor of people are protected due to preexisting responses.

[komali2]

Susceptible in what sense? Getting it and not having severe symptoms doesn't count as having benefitted from herd immunity - you still got it.

[tgb]

Wouldn't that be inherently included in the HIT calculation?