[amscanne]

But then the correlations with the other 48 states are broken. In that insane scenario, Mississippi now votes for Biden (because I guess he’s suddenly come out as pro-life as well), but Alaska still goes for Trump.

The negative correlations don’t make sense. Maybe it’s a small problem and the model is solid overall, but... I don’t think you can justify that one effect.

[mrtnmcc]

I think you have to look at the joint distribution with Alaska included to draw any conclusions. Just looking at separate marginals will be uninformative.