[imperfectcats]

It is already worse than the GFC in 2009. UK GDP dipped 21.7% in Q2, NZ ~13%, and the US ~10%. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-health-economy

Where it ends is anyone's guess, and the worst part will be the second and third order effects it won't be super easy to predict. Things like pension/401K/Superannuation funds with high Commercial real estate exposure leading to reduced retirement income, state pension funds that suffer as big US cities see revenue plummet after the population moves, European cities with vastly worse economies - the UK with London hurts there the most - and the cyclical effect of Italian demand reducing French production, reducing French demand reducing Italian production, ad nauseam.

This will be a multi-speed problem, with some countries, cities, counties, suburbs & streets affected far more than others.

If it wasn't so tragic it would be a truly fascinating thing to watch unfold.

[paganel]

> Things like pension/401K/Superannuation funds with high Commercial real estate exposure leading to reduced retirement income,

An interesting second (or even third) order effect of the 2008-2009 financial meltdown was the collapse of many German state banks (Landesbanks I think they're called) which had invested massively in US-based CDCs and the like. I don't think many people would have predicted that happening in 2005-2006.

[divbzero]

It is tragic. You’d think that drawing on all our cumulative knowledge and wisdom from the past, we could handle global crises better than we do today. But we clearly have a long ways to go.