[eyelidlessness]

Well, I’m not particularly affected by this (I live in a state that hasn’t been considered purple for at least a decade and probably shouldn’t have been for the decade prior), but... most election systems have some form of strategic voting behavior—either built in (all manner of ranked voting), or based on understanding of the system and being underserved by it. In the US, that could look like leftish people in VA seeing that the state is reasonably safe to do its part to oust trump, and people of the same lean in NC not seeing the same level of safety. Or rightish people in Georgia feeling less safe bucking the Rs, and so on.

In this system, there are two ways to democratically influence politics by voting:

1. Vote your preferred candidate

2. Withhold your vote from the party more closely aligned with your views, in hopes of helping shift its coalition priorities

If you fall into the second category, accurate forecasting makes a strategic difference.