[lordnacho]

It comes from innumerate journalism, and an innumerate population. Next time someone laughs off being bad at math, you should point out that being unable to read is no laughing matter, and being unable to understand numbers shouldn't be either.

The only sensible way to predict probabilities that aren't extreme is to tell people how the model works and the figures it is currently spitting out. That's is the great thing about these kinds of blog posts, people are kicking the tyres, not just looking at the car.

Nobody predicting a one-off election with a rather special candidate would summarize a 33% chance as equivalent to having no chance.

[solveit]

> Next time someone laughs off being bad at math, you should point out that being unable to read is no laughing matter, and being unable to understand numbers shouldn't be either.

You're not wrong, but you should not do this.