[bena]

Yes, I'm not defending the original guy, I'm just stating what I believe his argument to be.

He's basically saying he doesn't believe the die is fair/unweighted.

So stating the odds of a fair die is kind of immaterial to his point. We need to demonstrate to the guy that the die is fair.

Someone else posted a link (I think) of 538 going over on how accurate they were. Whether their odds bore out. Here it is: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/

Basically what they did was bucket every prediction by odds. If they predicted 70/30, it went in that bucket. And they're "right" at about the rate of their predictions. In other words, for every 70/30 prediction they made, the people/teams with 70% chance to win, won about 70% of the time.

That shows that 538 in this case is pretty decent at calculating odds.