[evgen]

This is the important point here IMHO. There are two errors that the tails need to deal with, voter shifts that are missed by polling and black swan events that completely upend the table. I think that the 528 model lumps a lot of the long tail into the second category, which then basically becomes a "let's throw out most of the rules and make wild guesses" territory. There is so little worthwhile information in those tails I am really surprised that this is the focus of the disagreement.