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by DavidSJ 2069 days ago
Other way around: uncorrelated errors tend to cancel each other, correlated errors tend to reinforce each other.
1 comments

Well Gelman claims the opposite.
No, what Gelman says is that he suspects that to compensate for the fat tails in 538's state distributions, they had to reduce the between-state correlations, to get a desired overall level of uncertainty.

This implies that correlations increase, rather than decrease, the overall level of uncertainty.

This is also easy to see from a basic probability perspective, using the concept of variance. For example, if you have two coin flips, with outcomes {-1, +1} chosen uniformly at random, then the sum has variance 2 if the flips are independent, but variance 4 if the flips are perfectly dependent.

No, here's what Gelman says:

> the lower the correlation between states, the more uncertainty you need for each individual state forecast to get a desired national uncertainty