[bart_spoon]

Yes, which is why it’s foolish to talk about the outcome of that single race. You are right that there will never be another 2016 election between Clinton and Trump. However, that is only one of hundreds of forecasts made by 538 across multiple election cycles, so we can see how often their probabilistic outcomes align with actual outcomes. The fact that their track record is fairly good across all of these is evidence suggesting that Trump’s win may be more likely to be the realization of a less likely outcome predicted by their model, rather than a fundamental problem of their model itself.

[bena]

Like I told the other guy, I'm not defending his position, I'm stating it in different terms. And stating why pointing out the odds of a fair die isn't a good counter argument.

Grandposter doesn't believe the die is fair. That's a different argument than the guy I responded to made.