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by bart_spoon
2065 days ago
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No it doesn’t, and this is a fundamental misunderstanding of how probabilistic forecasting works. If it rains 9 out of 10 times a weatherman says there is a 30% chance of rain, they are a bad weatherman, but they aren’t much worse than if it rained 0 out of 10 times they predicted a 30% chance of rain. A weatherman accurately assessing the probability of the weather forecast would see it rain around 3 out of 10 days they say there is a 30% chance of rain. |
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