[RivieraKid]

> Just because there are not many datapoints.

There are more than enough data points to determine the between-state error correlations, many of which seem to be very off.

> Additionally, getting worked up about a 3% chance

The weird between-state correlations actually have a large effect, they increase state and nationwide uncertainty and as a result Trump has a higher chance of winning.

[noirbot]

It seems more likely that it's actually the other way. Nate Silver has specifically said he built the model to have relatively high uncertainty, especially with the volatility of this year, so this seems more like the outcome of intentional decisions to not let the model be overly confident.

[RivieraKid]

I think it's an error in the model structure. If their goal was to artificially increase uncertainty, there are more reasonable ways to do that than adding weird between-state correlations (like the uncertainty index which is part of the model). WA and MS definitely should not have a large negative correlation.