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by klyrs
2068 days ago
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The negative correlation between NJ and AK is curious. What I'd like to see here (and in all of these forecast sites) is some confidence analysis. If you pick Trump in NJ, looking at the plots, you've selected a tiny fraction of the data to examine. Who cares if the predicted value is wonky; show me the confidence interval! Treating this as a tea-leaf reading (that is, deliberately searching for meaning via free association, without investing it with a truth value) I'm reminded of the "own the libs" meme. I see folks on foxnews.com comments bragging about it; I see lefties complaining about it, but I suspect that it's overblown and not actually a driver behind people's decision-making. But that's what comes up for me when I see "NJ goes Trump" forcing "AK goes Biden". I'm amused by the resulting thought experiment... if dems started airing "socialists for Trump" campaigns in otherwise safe GOP states, would it move the needle there? Even sillier: if you aired those ads in NJ, would it move the needle in AK? |
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https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1f/Ne...
This is it in 2016:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e6/Ne...
Long Island is really red there. It’s really hard to say how a democratic stronghold like NYC and something literally a 45 min train ride next to it could vote so differently. Long Islanders are not separate from NYCers, they commute to and work in the city.
To your question, could experiments work in similar situations like this across the country for either side? I think so in the next 50 years as demographics shift (and I don’t think it’s as simple as urban liberals taking over, people do become more conservative as they get older). God knows the dynamic at work between NYC and Long Island in 2016, but it’s obvious things are in flux.
I’ll make a bold prediction here. If Long Island is that red again, yeah, you better believe the typical rust belt states are staying red.