[jimmygrapes]

The shy Tory factor[0] is likely to be even stronger this year than in 2016 when it comes to polls. After 4+ years of being harangued and called every name in the book by the vast majority of national culture (movies, music, TV, news, social media, news-entertainment), along with increasingly hostile projects such as https://donaldtrump.watch/ I imagine less of his more subdued supporters are going to be honest with pollsters.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_factor

[noirbot]

But wouldn't that mostly be concentrated in places/areas where their votes aren't likely to matter? Having just driven through the US South in the last month, I can confidently tell you people are not in any way shy about their support for Trump. I saw more Trump signs and flags than I saw US flags.

It's also likely this works in both directions - if you support Biden, I bet you don't have a yard sign for it if you live in Mississippi.

By construction, the effect is strongest the more you're not in the majority, which also means your unspoken support is more likely to not matter on the actual outcomes of the election.

[ceilingcorner]

It's more relevant in swing states, which are by definition mixed. I.e. if you live in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, or Florida, you can't really be sure how your neighbors will react to a Biden/Trump sign.

[JJzD]

If you're right, the support for Trump should be higher in polls where people talk through a phone menu or the internet, compared to live interviews.

Newsflash, they aren't, so your hypothesis must be they're too shy to admit their Trump support to a machine?

Everybody is just fighting the last war where Trump suddenly won for a couple of reasons. So, the Dems are scared they are missing something, and the Reps are going "Haha, who cares about modelling".

Will, the forecasts be perfect? Nope. But is the margin rather large, but not unsurmountable? Yes it is. Are the mistakes from last time repaired? Yes, they take care of uneducated whites. Is there evidence Trump has found a new source of voter support? I haven't seen it.

[ceilingcorner]

Yep. I see this everywhere, both online and in person.

[gamblor956]

Anecdotal, but I have never met a Trump supporter that was shy about who they were voting for, this year or in 2016.

If anything, Trump supporters have been extremely vocal about who they were supporting, to the extent that they frequently violate social norms and try to takeover events and gatherings to make their political affiliations known, like this week with Among Us.