[Tyr42]

If I tell you you're not likely to get two heads in a row, and you do, does that make me un-reliable?

It's unfortunate we can't just run the election again a few times, and actually find the rate at which Trump is elected given the polls.

And it's not empty signalling if 538 assigned Trump a higher chance of winning; they were pretty much the only ones saying he has a chance. That is why people think the models are useful.