[Baeocystin]

>Think about the fact that in 3.5 billion years there hasn't been any new abiogenesis on the only planet in the universe we know for sure can sustain life, and in this billion years a single life form has ever evolved from a single-cell to multi-cellular life, aren't the priors pretty decent that life is an extremely rare phenomenon?

Any freshly-evolved life would have to compete with organisms that have already been honing their survival strategies for literal billions of years. There's no reason to think such a thing is possible, and the lack of it doesn't speak one way or another to the difficulty of it happening in a virgin environment.