[dkersten]

Not grounds for stopping work[1], but perhaps grounds to explore other avenues[2] to see if something else might yield faster results.

I’m no expert, but my personal opinion is that AGI will probably be some hybrid approach that uses some reinforcement learning mixed with other techniques. At the very least, I think an AGI will need to exist in an interactive environment rather than just trained on preset datasets. Prior context or not, a child doesn’t learn by being shown a lot of images, it learns by being able to poke at the world to see what happens. I think an AGI will likely require some aspect of that (and apply reinforcement learning that way).

But like I said, I’m no expert and that’s just my layperson opinion.

[1] if the goal is AGI, if it’s not then of course there’s no reason to stop

[2] some people are doing just that, of course

[mannykannot]

Fair enough, though I do not think the evidence from evolution moves the needle much with respect to the timeline. For one thing, evolution was not dedicated to the achievement of intelligence.

[dkersten]

Sounds reasonable.