[gridlockd]

This may be uncomfortable to point out, but at some point, the virus has to run out of susceptible people to kill. The real chance of dying from COVID for an individual is not the average of ~0.4%. It's 0.0% for the vast majority of people, but for people whose immune system fails them, it's closer to 100%. Such a condition usually takes years to build up. Excess mortality graphs show that a lot of people dodged the Influenza bullet in the past years, those were highly susceptible to die of COVID-19 this year.

[bennyelv]

It’s a satisfying rationale, but it doesn’t take into account a range of unknown factors. What about different strains and variability in how deadly they are? What about the difference that the size of the initial dose of the virus makes to the end outcome? What about the effect of chance in how quickly and effectively a person’s immune system deals with it?

The rationale relies on a set of constants which are... probably not constant.

[gridlockd]

Of course there's lots of factors, but this is one obvious factor that must not be ignored.

> What about different strains and variability in how deadly they are?

Is there any evidence that the variations spreading now are different from those spreading earlier this year?

> What about the difference that the size of the initial dose of the virus makes to the end outcome?

There was a study done on hamsters that only showed a minimal impact of initial dose on disease severity.

On the other hand, you have increased mortality among healthcare worker, which could be caused by higher exposure. However, there's also the impact of such a stressful situation on the immune system.

[ywhjaknskkkw]

Of course you are getting downvoted but you are 100% correct