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by qq12as
2075 days ago
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Draw three independent random variables a,b,c~U[0,1].
In the first experiment, let the baby pick between a and b: of course E[a|chosen]>1/2; E[b|unchosen]<1/2. Since a,b,c are independent, E[c]=1/2. Why are they (journalist/researcher (?)) surprised that in the 2nd round the baby chooses c over b?
[Of course, if you force the baby to pick either b or a in the first round, she will be equally likely to pick c or not in the second round] |
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