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by reasonattlm
2074 days ago
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We don't need to end biological aging, just control it. Let aging run, producing molecular damage in tissues, and periodically repair and reverse that damage such that people don't become physically old. The SENS Research Foundation folk have on occasion talked about what they think is the most funding that can be run through the research community to produce progress. Something like $100m/yr for each of the seven areas of interest would be a ballpark upper limit before you start to run out of competent research groups to fund productively. Once you have a candidate therapy, expect $150M to get it through trials. It is very challenging to guess at how many different therapies are needed. It might be a hundred different forms of treatment in the case of cleaning up persistent metabolic waste. Even in the case of single target problems such as senescent cell accumulation (just selectively destroy those cells), it may still be the case that ten or twenty different therapies are funded to take a run at that grail. (Then for every therapy approved, budget the usual industry size for providing a service to 3 billion people once every few years. Most such treatments will be biologic and small molecule drugs that can be mass produced, and the ballpark for infrequent treatments that are well into their mature, cost-optimized stage of manufacturing seems to top out at $10k or so - but that may well get crushed down lower by the economies of scale in providing to the world at large, rather than to the less than 1% who have a specific condition. But this is a whole other analysis). Any attempt to say too much more than I have above about the control of aging approach is challenging at this stage. Too much variance. |
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