[jl2718]

#2 doesn’t work. At least for heavily-traded sectors. Why?

First: “The markets will remain irrational longer than you will remain solvent.” Fed policy pumped in too much dumb money. If you don’t think like them, you lose.

Second: “Markets create their own reality.” Dumb money eventually creates smart results. Today access to capital is far more important than any other factor in success.

Third: “Opportunity is blood in the water.” Good investments are entrenched stable markets. Disruptive technologies kill margins for everybody.

[whimsicalism]

> Fed policy pumped in too much dumb money

Given fed policy, the outlook of the market seems rational. Why would the Fed not engage in expansionary monetary policy during a recession? Just so that the market better reflects how you "feel" it should look?

[CameronNemo]

Because monetary policy rarely works long term, and is a fatally blunt instrument.

Fiscal policy can be applied much more carefully and is often far more efficient.