[Myto]

You reject my argument without being able to point to any flaw in it. Because you and a lot of other people do not accept or have not thought of it. I can't really help with that.

If it's about popularity instead of logical argument, of course I'm not the only one who thinks this. There was a really good blog post that laid it out but I can't find it currently. Instead, here's a scientific paper I found just now, the introduction contains the same argument I'm making. And it's far from the only place which agrees.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/2195-5468-2-2

> The problem posed in this way may lead to a lot of controversy, mainly because we do not know whether the behavior of the host had anything to do with your first choice or not.

> Perhaps the host would open a door with a goat only when your first choice was right. In this case, it was not a good choice to change doors.

EDIT: Also several people have pointed this same thing out elsewhere in this thread.

[jjnoakes]

I pointed out several reasons why I think your argument is flawed.