[matthewdgreen]

> I certainly haven't observed any significant change in behaviors since the July peak, yet the numbers are falling like a rock regardless.

Picking FL as an example: deaths are down only about 50% since the peak in August (7-day averaged), and the numbers are surprisingly "sticky" (in the sense that they're not going down all that quickly.) For the record, FL lost 139 people yesterday; that's nearly the capacity of a 737.

[orangecat]

For the record, FL lost 139 people yesterday

139 deaths were reported; those deaths actually occurred over the last several months. Which means we won't know how many actually died yesterday for a while, but it's likely well below 139. Jennifer Cabrera posts regular updates with dates of deaths, e.g. https://twitter.com/jhaskinscabrera/status/13139124858340884...

[matthewdgreen]

You make this out like I've picked on some rare outlier day, but the state has had multiple days in the past two weeks with even bigger death numbers. The 7-day average is a pretty substantial 85. If your point is that the drop since August has been more substantial, then I would need to know that the older, higher numbers were not also subject to the same delays.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizh...

[orangecat]

You make this out like I've picked on some rare outlier day

Sorry, I didn't mean to convey that impression. Florida has been regularly reporting daily death counts that include deaths from several months ago.

I would need to know that the older, higher numbers were not also subject to the same delays.

They were, in the other direction. If you look at the date-of-death chart in the thread I linked, you'll see that for a few weeks there were consistently over 200 actual deaths per day, while the reported 7-day average in your chart never reached 200. The delay means that the reported count will be lower than the actual count when deaths are rising, and higher than the actual count when deaths are falling.

And of course we can't be sure which of those categories we're in at any particular point in time; if deaths do start to increase again, it may not be noticeable in the reported numbers for several days. But based on the hospitalization trend I believe it's probable that the current reported numbers overstate the actual deaths.