[e40]

I wonder if this also means that only 35% of us need a vaccination to declare it over. I had previously read 60-70% were needed and that 35% of Americans get a flu shot. That depressed me.

EDIT: seriously, downvoting this comment? Can't imagine why and would like to know.

[alkonaut]

No, immunity through vaccination is less heterogeneous and more random.

With natural infection, the socially active will be infected and removed first, which lowers the fraction needed.

[tzs]

I don't understand why more people do not get flu shots, unless they have no medical insurance and cannot afford the cost.

It's not always effective, because they have to predict when they make it what strains of flu will be prevalent in the next flu season, and they don't always get that right, but in that case you are no worse off than if you had not gotten the vaccine. But when they do get it right, it can save you from getting the flu. That's certainly worth a few minutes getting it an a couple days with a sore arm.

With a COVID vaccine, I doubt it will get anywhere near the same fraction of takers as the flu vaccine.

1. The anti-vaccine crowd probably won't take it.

2. The "COVID is no worse than a mild flu" crowd probably won't take it. Even if they do, it won't be at a higher rate than they take the flu vaccine.

3. The "COVID is a hoax" crowd probably won't take it.

4. A lot of the people who believe COVID is real and serious will probably be turned off if the approval seems to have involved politicians forcing approval over the objection of scientists who say it is not ready yet. (Especially if those politicians have also been pushing the "no worse than a mild flu" narrative).

[Buttons840]

Aren't flu shots usually free? The last few I've gotten were.

[tzs]

Flu shots are covered by insurance without a copay or coinsurance in the US, but there are about 30 million people who do not have health insurance.

[dragonwriter]

> With a COVID vaccine, I doubt it will get anywhere near the same fraction of takers as the flu vaccine.

It will if closures are lifted but vaccination is made a requirement (either privately or by government mandate) for on-site work, schooling, etc. The flu vaccine is treated as primarily a personal preventive medical treatment; while it is encouraged for public as well as personal health reasons, there is no force put behind it. But it is quite possible, and there is plenty of precedent for, public health measures to be mandated (especially a conditional mandate, like for schools, work in particular conditions--including any public content or even on-premises work) and enforced.

[tzs]

45 states allow skipping their conditional mandate for schools if the parents cite religious objections. I expect their COVID mandates will have similar exceptions.

[neves]

The vaccine won't be 100% effective. The FDA just approves vaccines that are at least 50% effective, and with the margin of error it's possible that they will work in 30% of the population.