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I really struggle reading academic studies still... "Heterogeneity in contact structure and individual variation in infectivity, susceptibility, and resistance are key factors that reduce the disease-induced herd immunity levels to 34.2-47.5% in our models." I THINK that means, in addition to how infectious COVID is, and how susceptible and resistant people are in general, one of the other things that impact herd immunity is "contact structure" and it tends to be sort of limited. There seems to be plenty of "Heterogeneity in contact structure" studies done on many other things out there, so it looks like this is something that's already understood. If I understand it correctly, it means that most people have limited contacts, and while we all might be "6 degrees" from everyone else, we're not directly contacting all those people, and so that could help with herd immunity. So that maybe reduces the number from 74% to this 34-47% number, which better. Does that mean "Heterogeneity in contact structure" is different for people based on things like how often we go out, where we go, how we travel and where we live? e.g. a subway/bus trip in Manhattan, NY is different than driving alone in Manhattan, KS. |