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by thehappypm 2079 days ago
Step 4, kind of a mystery. Why are my odds still the same even though the situation is different?
4 comments

You choosing a door in the first place gave you 1-in-3 chance. But your 1-in-3 choice is deducted from the 3-of-3 choices that Monty could have had, so Monty only had a 2-in-3 choice: there's a 2/3 chance that the car is in the pool of doors from which Monty could select. Monty has a 100% chance of choosing a door without a car. Therefore, you inherit the 2-in-3 chances if you change your selection.

The first door will have the car 1/3 of the time. The second door's chances had been expanded to the remaining 2/3 percent thanks to Monty always choosing the last 1/3 door which is guaranteed to not have a car.

Because it isn't different really. It is always a goat door that is opened, so you don't gain any information about your door by the opening of the goat door.

I'm thinking of a number between 1 and 10, guess it. If I now tell you a number I promise is not the one I was thinking and not your number, you have no more information about if you were correct.

Because it really centers on the initial premise: Monty will always open a goat door after your choice, no matter what.

So, you make a totally random choice. That choice must be 1/3 right, right? Now the thing that you already knew would definitely happen happens: Monty opens a goat door. How can your odds suddenly jump to 1/2?

Are you saying every single time you play the game, you always have a 1/2 chance of getting it right first time?

What you knew about the door you initially picked hasn't changed at all. What you now know about the other doors has. By giving you information about 1/2 of the other 2/3 doors, Monty has given you an extra 1/3 chance if you pick among those.