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by oxymoran 2083 days ago
Very much at risk, but the risk is very small.
3 comments

1% chance of death and 2% chance of extended illness is not "very small". I would put those risks as "very high", since that is essentially your risk budget for the entire year.

I used to play a tabletop RPG that used percentile dice. For every action, there was a 1% chance of a miserable failure. Turns out, those cropped up quite a bit.

So, if 50, you are willing to play Russian-Roulette and pick an M&M from a jar of 100 (or even 200) when, perhaps, 1-4 of them will kill you?

I'd love to imagine (actually watching would be sadistic) a lineup of folks claiming they would, step up to the M&Ms, one after another, be told of the chances, and watch them pluck one, or step away.

https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid#case-fatalit...

Nope. The risk is climbing rapidly at that age.