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by mathraki 2084 days ago
A tradeoff that I find fascinating is that of democracy vs authoritarian gov't. It's the question of our days.

I've come to the conclusion that a well functioning authoritarian government (like China's) has many short term advantages:

- very efficient in redirecting resources as needed

- the top concerns of the state (e.g. beat COVID, create a domestic semiconductor industry out of thin air) are addressed very efficently

- no politics or stupid "check and balances" to stall momentum (e.g compare to how many of Trump's orders, even for Tiktok, were at least temporarily halted by federal judges)

HOWEVER- to have a well functioning authoritarian government you need a strongman at the top (Xi, Putin etc). This is my own anecdotal estimate, but I'd say there is at least a 25% change you get someone that wants to hold on to power and willing to sacrifice their people's well being in order to do that (e.g. see China's Great Leap forward and resulting famine [1])

So you get 1, 2 3 leadership successions that work out and prosperity keeps growing... but how far will your luck take you? Even if 3/4 leaders are 'good' chances of having 5 leaders all good are 23%, and to have 10 successful successions your chances are .75^10=5%.

In the long run, the authoritarian regime will collapse under its own weight. In the short term it's kicking ass. Your call which one you want to pick.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chinese_Famine

5 comments

In China, this is called the "bad emperor" problem. They've seen it several times.
I have lived in China. Authoritarian is way worse. Putin is not authoritarian in the degree that China is.

It has lots of disadvantages:

- You can loose everything you have very fast, including your live and the live of your children, and of course your money or your home. There are kidnappings in China.

-Your food is not safe. The air you breath is not safe and if you try to do something, let alone measure it, you will get into problems. They can kill you and make you disappear.

- Nothing is true. Have they beaten COVID? You believe so because they tell you so. But the party controls media so you can believe as well in Santa.

-The State in China is one of the least efficient things you can think of, and extremely corrupt. The only thing they are good at is propaganda.

-Lots of politics in China. Have you seen all the people at the CCP? Lots of factions there fighting for power. Those guys are killing each other or pointing fingers at other factions and sending them to jail with each new scandal.

IMO, "check and balances" is not stupid. It is one of the best inventions the West have created.

Coming back has made me realize how valuable is what we have in the West. And how spoiled people are taking for granted what took thousands of years to develop.

To be fair, the same can be said for a lot of under developed democratic countries.
Exactly. Monarchies and dictatorships like you say always inevitably implode because no matter how great the current person in power is, there's nothing you can do to guarantee the quality of their successors.

And it's precisely because no system of checks and balances exist that ensures once you roll badly on a succession, that whoever ends up gaining control is able to so quickly destroy whatever has previously been built up.

The only way to truly ensure long term growth and stability, is to build up a robust system, independent of any individual, that has checks and balances set in place.

Also your "strongman" has to not be stupid and keep the economy running, otherwise you get a "great leader" telling their farmers to turn equipment into scrap metal (amongst other mis-scientific advice) and you get a Great Leap into Famine (as you referenced)
I think that this describes imaginary authoritarian country rather then real one. It is not like all policies of authoritarian leaders worked as intended. They don't, the ranks under twist them to unrecognizable.

Also, authoritarian leader willing to sacrifice well being of subjects is not the exception, it is the norm. You can't be authoritarian leader without such willingness.

Also, checks and balances are not stupid. The difference is that stalling of Trump orders happened in the open for well defined reasons.