[roel_v]

Have you actually done any permaculture, and/or run the numbers on what it would take to move away from synthetic fertilizers? The reason permaculture isn't part of the default is because it's a pipe dream. A hobby for those interested in it, but not a real, scalable alternative for what we have now.

[hosh]

If we are trying to scale up permaculture practices to the kind of mega-farms we are talking about, I don't think that is practical either.

If we are talking about many smaller sites more evenly distributed to where people are living (and likely, not people not aggregating into large metropolitan areas), I think it can work.

A lot of stuff would have to change. Permaculture isn't just about farming. Other things like human waste would have to be made as part of the nutrient-cycle. We have a lot of compostable food wastes going into landfills generating methane. We have landscaping practices that eat up water, or get rid of what could be fed back into the ground. We have a ton of food that never makes it to the supermarket because they are not in standard sizes fit for the retail market. You have planting practices that makes it easier for machines to harvest, or to grow to standard types, but it generates a much greater need for synthetic fertalizers.

You can't just run the numbers the nitrogen input of the farms. You also have to look at where all that stuff is going, and a lot of where it is going never makes it back as input.

[sjy]

I just asked for some pro-permaculture sources in this comment [1], and would appreciate it if you could also point me in the direction of some further reading on the claim that permaculture is a pipe dream.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24648887

[adrianN]

Organic agriculture has much lower yields than conventional agriculture for most crops [1]. I believe permaculture is more restrictive than US-Organic. It would take some big changes in our diet to absorb such a loss in productivity.

[1] https://geneticliteracyproject.org/2018/02/16/usda-data-conf...

[maxerickson]

There's also the little pickle that manure from an industrial feedlot is considered an organic fertilizer.

(I'm not suggesting it's directly a problem, the issue is that it's real hard to figure out the nitrogen budget society ends up with if all synthetic fertilizers go away)

[hosh]

Have you looked at this? https://www.architectural-review.com/essays/cubas-urban-farm...

During the economic sanctions, Cuba was forced to stop using synethetic fertilizers, pesticides, and even tractors. They could not import enough to be able use those at scale. The people there had to adapt and work out how to live.

[roel_v]

So I typed a 10-paragraph post here arguing my case but ended up deciding there was too much identifying and non-public information in it for me to be comfortable posting it here. If you post an email address or add one to your profile, I can send it to you privately.