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by throwmeaway_pls
2088 days ago
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Look, terabytes of back-and-forth in internet comments has happened over this. The calculation you are asking to do is not a realistic scenario. The pandemic is gonna come out to be on the order of one year’s worth of smoking. People have been dying totally preventable deaths due to cigarettes at that rate your entire life. |
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Yes - with the original lock down, with extensive social distancing measures - the 'end result' will be in the same order of magnitude as 'smoking' (actually much more) - but without suppressive measures it would be apocalyptic.
It's entirely plausible to estimate: it's in the order of millions of dead in a short period. It would probably be the 'worst disaster in US history by a long shot'. Probably worse than all wars in including Civil War and WW1 + WW2 combined.
FYI The UK and Sweden were estimating 60-80% of the population infected in order to get 'herd immunity' - so given the IFR/CFRs stated above ... that's millions of Americans dead, and just as many with lingering effects.