[kvb]

I think it is pretty hard to compute the cost, because what's the counterfactual? Even if you don't force a shutdown people may still opt to isolate themselves and businesses may opt to close, and the degree to which they do so is probably dependent on the dynamics of the pandemic, so you're going to be pretty sensitive to modeling errors.

[refurb]

That’s a fair point, but even a rough estimate would be interesting.

Say all increased gov’t spending to support people who lost their jobs during the shutdown. It’s a known number.

Sure it would be very rough, but just knowing the relative magnitude would be interesting. Is it $1,000 per QALY or $100,000 per QALY?