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by pnutjam 2087 days ago
Hmmm. I wonder if tax policy has anything to do with this, or the way wealthy people can shelter money in a residence. I wonder if lack of savings interest is a big driver...

In short, your analysis is grade school level.

1 comments

>your analysis is grade school level

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I didn't analyze anything. My goal was to assert: Inflation is present in the US economy, Home prices as an example; and to provide some relative bounds on what that rate might be.

>I wonder if tax policy has anything to do with this

What's you thesis of the tax policy changes that occurred in the past 12 years that caused asset-price inflation?

>way wealthy people can shelter money in a residence

How are "wealthy people" "sheltering money" in the bottom 50% of all home prices -- those homes who prices would need to change to change the median price?

>lack of savings interest is a big driver

The opportunity of high, investment returns doesn't reduce the prices of the goods we need to buy to exist.

If I was to actually provide some analysis for the price increases, I'd posit: Downward, interest-rate manipulation by central banks has caused systemic-wide credit expansion. The new money that results from this policy affects economic of all goods but most severely inelastic goods -- such as houses and in markets that receive artificial economic intervention from central planners (in the US, the housing market is a prime example).

Assets that don't increase in value are "losing money", per economic theory. Homes are a low interest money sink. You can buy a home, hold it and get a decent return on your money. You can also mortgage the home at low interest, and gamble that money for higher interest in stocks, etc. You can use rental income to offset your mortgage costs.

This is a perfect storm for pushing up costs and denying lower income Americans the ability to pay rent and buy homes.

citations: https://blogs.cornell.edu/cradle/2019/02/11/what-the-federal...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2020/07/28/fed-policy-h...