[fractaled]

I don't think this logic applies to the demographics of today. The total number of humans to have ever lived is calculated to be ~105 billion. So assuming you're applying that logic to today, you're one of the most recent ~7%, which doesn't seem that remarkable -- at least not to the point of assuming fatalistic scenarios.

[username90]

If humanity continues like this with no new discoveries then in ten million years we would have 200 million per year * 10 million years = 2 quadrillion people. Getting a human who lived at the start of that peak is very improbable.

But you are right, civilization lasting another few thousand years isn't that improbable. Just that it is strange that it would last a thousand years but not a million, seems like humanity should have figured out how to stabilize things if civlization lasts that long.

Edit: Or maybe our ultimate downfall will just be lack of evolutionary pressure so at some point nobody can sustain civlization. That wouldn't happen in a thousand years but a million years is definitely enough.

Edit2: Or we solve our lifespan issue very soon and people no longer die, so people also no longer can procreate or they would exhaust available resources.