[Kim_Bruning]

I thought your argument was well reasoned; but I would like to make a point about Life: because once life exists, things get interesting.

Life as we know it is based on genetics, which -as we know- is a kind of natural optimizer. A lot of people play with optimizers these days in AI and ML. Of course life does not optimize for click-through nor for paperclips. Instead it optimizes for "survival".

So if it is known that certain optimal points (niches) exist on the optimization landscape (fitness landscape), then one can assume they will be occupied sooner or later.

Or, in normal English: If something is at all reasonably possible, then once life exists, "Life Will Find A Way".

So once you get to the point where Life exists, the likelihood of life-related-things actually happening would actually seem to be quite high.

Of course with just life on a planet; history still moves at a slower scale than if there are planet were have actual sapients or even civilisation. Those are much faster optimizers, of course.