[rossdavidh]

In 2017, for example, the vaccine didn't work all that well, because of this exact problem. My dad, who lived in an eldercare facility, was confined to his room many days of the winter, which is something I sympathized with at the time, but sympathize a whole lot more with after this April's shelter-in-place order.

The deaths in the U.S. in 2017 were about 61,000, compared to the normal 40,000 or so.

Long story short: you don't know, but it's the best guess of those in charge of making that call.

[nradov]

I think if I was in your father's situation I would just go out and take my chances. At the age when I have to live in an eldercare facility I'll already be at a constant high risk of death from other causes. What's the point of avoiding the flu if it means I'm stuck in solitary confinement where a stroke might kill me tomorrow?