[farout]

I can not recall that exact title of the book something about ants and elephants (looked on amazon - did not recognize those books) but these are my takeaways from it:

1. state your goals

2. write down your milestones - must be actual measurable metrics

3. write reasons why you will not reach them - expect the unexpected; yes you can not expect all the unexpected but this is preparing you so that when there are issues, which are guaranteed to happen, this is how you need to respond without your emotions totally taking over.

4. Write down what you will do when you encounter these problems. Again be specific. Think of this a as a recipe book/play book.

5. write down the rewards you will give to yourself for each milestone achieved. You need to put a positive feedback loop as incentive. Worked in kindergarten with goldstars.

6. and from the another book: Influencer: The Power to Change Anything answer the 2 Qs:

Do I think I can do it? (meaning skills and resources)

Is it worth it to me to do it?

Wow, a lot of work? Sure is. Worth it. Yes.

[dreeves]

That last one is similar to my litmus test for Akrasia [http://wikipedia.org/wiki/Akrasia]:

    1. How certain are you that you *want* to do it?
    2. How certain are you that you *can* do it?
    3. How certain are you that you *will* do it?

If your answers are "absolutely", "definitely", and "given historical evidence, not entirely" then this is classic akrasia. I think the only solution in that case is some form of self-binding. See http://blog.beeminder.com/akrasia

[farout]

Very interesting.

Here is a nice synopsis of a case studied in the Influencer book about the Carter Center helping to rid Guinea worm infections in several African countries: http://www.joshhunt.com/mail215.htm

I have problem accepting your conclusion from your blog:To make the long-term consequences of failing at your goal immediate, you need a bright and painful line.

I think it more complex than that, which you alluded to earlier. I am constantly trying to be a better me. Losing money would not be an incentive to me if milestones were not met as you recommended.

The book, "Change or Die", talks about Dick Cheney needing a yearly heart bypass and then finally getting $6M/invested in chefs/fitness trainers/doctors/retrofitted planes to change himself (basically to exercise 1 hour a day). This is even before his recent massive weight loss.

It also talks about, people with fatal diseases that refuse to take their daily meds as required. Why? I mean it is fatal. They will die.

Taking the pill every day made them realize they were dying. Forgetting to do so, made them have a happier less depressing day. I guess quality versus quantity. In this case if the pill was somehow better integrated, so they would not notice it much and reflect so much, they might consistently take it.

I also liked this synopsis of take aways from this MS project manager about the Influencer. the Power to Change Anything: http://sourcesofinsight.com/2009/06/09/influencer-the-power-...

Also, you may have already seen this, Sendhil Mullainathan's, "THE IRONY OF POVERTY" http://www.edge.org/documents/archive/edge263.html in which he talks one such problem diarrhea causing infant deaths and how to successfully change the mental model of the parents to save infant lives.

I have not yet read PG's essay.The Wikipedia article was a nice read. Thanks!

PS There are some interesting books on how train and change behaviors in animals since I think in end we more like animals than we care to admit.

[farout]

Read PG's article. Ok.

The smoking issue was interesting. In the book, Lady Drinking Tea, which explores how modern statistics came to be (BTW excellent read - fun), RA Fisher, the father of modern statistics, argued that lung cancer and smoking were correlated and you can NOT determine causation based on that.

For 60 years this smoker attacked everyone who disagreed. He was brilliant but still an asshole. He died from lung cancer, apropos. Soon after smoking was targeted again as a cause for lung cancer and many lives were saved since Fisher was no longer there attacking them.

[miked]

He died from lung cancer, apropos.

He died from colon cancer.

http://www.bookrags.com/highbeam/r-a-fishers-life-and-death-...

[farout]

You are right. My bad. Memory going. Should have confirmed.