[disgruntledphd2]

The US made a different set of choices to Western Europe with respect to unemployment. Europe (mostly) chose to maintain existing employment, while the US chose to make unemployment benefits much more generous.

In a short pandemic world, it's likely that the European strategy will perform better, while in a long pandemic world, the US strategy may perform better.

I do agree with the OP though, it's far too early to tell (except letting the unemployment benefits lapse in the US was almost certainly a bad idea).