[hnexamazon]

What causes have the other 19,920 COVID cases been traced to? I read the articles you linked and this is the only other data I could find:

“The results showed that more than a thousand COVID-19 cases had been linked to construction and nursing homes - while bars and restaurants had just 22 cases.”

1,000 cases from construction and nursing homes brings the number to 18,920 cases we need data on. This is the problem. There is so little high confidence tracing data that we can’t make strong decisions on what quarantine actions are materially impactful. Whose to say a substantial amount of that remaining number isn’t caused by bars and restaurants? If that data is out there, please share it. If not, please support more rigorous contact tracing.

[Izkata]

No evidence here, but if I had to guess: grocery stores would be a large chunk.

[qwerty1234599]

Grocery stores probably closer to zero. Reminds me of stranger danger.

You most likely will be infected by a family member or office coworker.

In march during the full lockdowns, something like 20% of the population was still meeting their friends and family behind closed doors like nothing was happening, and this is why the virus didn't die out in 2 weeks.

The reason why China welded apartment doors getting shut was not to prevent people getting out. It was to block family and friends of the apartment house inhabitants from visiting.