Where's the data that says Moore's law no longer holds? I see comments and articles asserting this but everytime with evidence. The data that I do find certainly still suggests Moore's law is doing fine.
Moore's law is still on pace but Dennard scaling has broken down for ~15 years now. That means we're not getting the same speedups as we were used to and that gets explained by "Moore's law has broken down" as a title.
Dennards law held until the approximately linear relations that made it work ended. Delay stopped being entirely gage, and more importantly, voltage couldn’t drop forever, due to material limits and intrinsic silicon limits.
the trick is to look at transistor density. people will take transistor counts of say, the eypc cpu but that is 9 chiplets for a huge total die area. transistor counts doubling via doubling die area isn’t moores law
I'm writing this comment on an 11 year old machine. It doesn't feel much slower than the 1 year old machine that I use at work. The number of transistors in its processor is also not 1/32-th or whatever of the office-machine's (especially if you don't count cache). It's processor has 45nm feature size, the modern machine's CPU is 14nm. In what way do you think does Moore's law still hold?
first generation core i7 (960), 45nm, october 2009, 263mm^2 die area, 4 cores, 4 threads, 3.2-3.46ghz 731 million transistors, 130W TDP,
tenth generation core mobile i7 (i7-10875H) 14nm, Q2-2020. 25mm^2 per set of two cores[0], 8 cores, 16 threads, 2.3-5.1ghz. 43 million transistors per square mm[1] -> over 4.3 billion transistors, 45W TDP.
So you have 4 times the threads, at a hair under twice the speed (without stressing turbo boost that much) at 1/3rd of the power at the wall. from top of the line desktop CPU in october of 2009 to "it's ok" mobile CPU from april of this year.
Intel stopped publishing (where i can find it) die size or transistor counts, i found the [0] and [1] information on a comparison between TSMC's 7nm fab runs and Intel's claimed 14nm fab runs; and i was only able to very briefly confirm this for the mobile i7 tenth gen and not the desktops. The desktop CPUs are like 400mm^2 larger in physical size, no idea about die size. Sorry. Intel stopped publishing those i guess, seems around the time that ryzen came out or slightly before.
edit: 11 years is 5.5 doublings of transistors IIRC, so you should really compare like to like, but i don't have that much free time. My laptop's CPU has 7.8 billion transistors just for the cores, and an additional 2 billion for I/O.
sorry. this information isn't in a precise place and i am unused to HN forms.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennard_scaling