[giardini]

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of [The Black Swan](http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp...) suggests not listening to men who wears ties, especially when they are making predictions about the future.

The fellow's predictions in the past have missed the big events: don't bother trusting his newest predictions.

[wynand]

One should be wary of anyone making predictions (those in ties are just especially annoying because they take themselves so seriously). Mr. Simmons says he doesn't believe we will discover any other energy sources that will deliver sufficient energy. Then he claims only to base his predictions on data. The past can tell us nothing about future invention.

That said, it's about time for the world to turn the Black Swan of peak oil into a Grey Swan (to use Mr. Taleb's expression). We really ought to start preparing to soften the blow. The current alarm is also inspiring bright folks to research alternative energy sources and that can only be good for us in the long term.