[n_io]

In complete accord with your sentiment, or what it really should be called: reality.

The problem is that everyone has become complicit in this euphoria because no one wants to stop the party when everyone's making money.

Notwithstanding, parties eventually end and bubbles do pop. The next question is: when?

[__Joker]

Always reminds me this buffet letter. Written almost in similar times. I think oft repeated argument has still some merit. The debt yields are non existent at this point and have not reach dot.com euphoria level but it doesn't give too much of a comfort.

    "The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities ¾ that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future ¾ will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands."

-- Warren Buffett, Chairman’s Letter to Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway [1]

1. https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2000ar/2000letter.html

[throwaway189262]

That's my opinion. Most investors know it's a party, but when will it end? With the election, corona vaccine, and the return to normalcy nearing everyone is wondering how long this will keep up.

The trigger to a stock crash is usually unexpected. I think either car loan or student debt crises but who knows

[victor106]

> Most investors know it's a party, but when will it end?

The thing with bubbles and crashes is that they never come to an end when most investors think they are in it. They only end when most people don’t think they are in one

[n_io]

I think that sounds about right. Short of a complete black swan it's bound to be one or a combination of the factors you mentioned.

[nurettin]

It will end when someone makes 3x what they've invested. As always.

[garmaine]

What return to normalcy?

[n_io]

P/E ratios < 1000

[noja]

Remember when a PE of 27 was high? https://boards.fool.com/toyotas-high-pe-ratio-10010880.aspx?...

Now the _average_ is higher!

[garmaine]

That doesn't fit the context of the above statement though, which was something about pandemics and general 2020 craziness. There's no indication that a "return to normalcy" regarding that is just around the corner.

[takeda]

I think as soon as the election is over, doesn't matter who wins. The one side wants get things back to normal, the other won't have a need of propping the market anymore.