[tgrass]

Personally, I'd want it at the neighborhood level. Though there may not be enough data within a reasonable timeframe at that level, it can at least be reasonably compared to a broader index for the city.

I don't think you get much at the zip code level that you wouldn't get at the Metro level.

The probability of a second reduction is also too simple. It makes no account for the market turning positive. That's precisely the error in modelling that failed us on the upswing: the assumption that present trends will continue.