[dthal]

This blog post went up on Saturday, September 12. It says:

>> MUCH cleaner air will push in by 4 PM Sunday over the coastal zone and will just reach Seattle late in the afternoon

>> By 1 AM Monday, air quality will be hugely better in western Washington

As of now (Tuesday) there is no sign of clearing. Here in Seattle we are still in the "very unhealthy" range for AQI.

[Lx1oG-AWb6h_ZG0]

He posted updates yesterday and today explaining why the models were wrong, it’s a very interesting insight into some of the complexities of the problem and how many variables are involved:

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/09/much-more-pessimistic... https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/09/why-smoke-situation-i...

Basically, no good news till at least tomorrow:

>> So I am not optimistic for improvement either today or Wednesday. With smoke production (at a lower level) by the continuing fires, a "stuck" weather pattern, and smoke trapped in a relatively stable lower atmosphere, things just can't improve rapidly.

[gdubs]

We’re in the Willamette valley and originally the smoke was supposed to let up last Thursday. That quickly passed and then it was Saturday night. Instead, we got dense, stagnant fog and continued off-the-charts air quality index numbers. But all the while, talk of how the rain was coming today. Well, not looking like rain today.

This has been a slog. Yet only a few towns over, there has been utter devastation from the fires. So we’re incredibly fortunate.

The headaches and scratchy throat have been pretty non-stop but mainly it’s the kids that have me concerned — the indoor air quality isn’t great, but have doing my best to keep the air from getting too bad. (Furnace filter / air purifier / taping the windows / etc).

[lacker]

Yeah, the weather forecasts for air quality have been quite inaccurate. Since Friday, the projections for Oakland CA have constantly been, “it’ll clear up in the next 24 hours.” Only now, Tuesday morning, has the AQI dropped below 100.

It seems like it’s just a harder problem than regular weather forecasting. Nobody has much experience with giant smoke clouds like this one. So I can forgive the weather service some inaccuracy. Just don’t rely on the AQI forecasts for much.

[wnissen]

Yep. Predictions are obviously hard, but there's no wind to blow the smoke away, so I don't know why it is routinely predicted to do so 48 hours in the future. There is enough smoke piled up over the ocean (at least to judge from the satellite pictures) that it would take several days of steady winds to clear everything out. Any wind strong enough to theoretically clear the smoke quickly would probably spark new fires instead. And yet even with multiple fires nowhere near containment, the Spare The Air forecast still says "moderate" air in two days. I'll believe it when I breathe it.

The "incident meteorologist" for the North Complex fire was quoted yesterday as saying there was no system predicted that would cause a notable improvement in air quality for the next two weeks. Again, assuming no new fires, which is a stretch given that we're right in the middle of the traditional fire season.

The only forecast I rely on is the National Weather Service. Their site is painfully dated but the accuracy is unmatched.

[GaryNumanVevo]

I've found the HRRR experimental smoke models to be quite good. It's a bit cumbersome to use, but good enough for 18H forecasts

https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/

[cmason]

In my experience these have been completely wrong recently for my neck of the woods (PDX) even at 6-12 hours. Cliff explains in one of his posts that this is because of not modeling the inversion. I’m having better luck with the Copernicus CAMS forecast in Windy

[SomewhatLikely]

I'm seeing some improvement in Redmond as of 3pm. I can see more distant hilltops than yesterday, sky feels slightly more blue, and looking directly at the sun hurts the eyes more than yesterday. Still extremely smoky don't get me wrong. Looking at the NWS forecasts they mention smoke going forward until Thursday night when we may get a thunderstorm.

[Wohlf]

How appropriate, a blog post about weather forecasts being inaccurate is itself inaccurate. Same down here in the Willamette Valley, I'd like to be able to breathe again.