[leftyted]

It's based on this: https://www.replicationmarkets.com, which is linked in the first paragraph of the article.

Per https://www.replicationmarkets.com/index.php/rules, volunteers are predicting whether 3000 social science papers are replicable. According to the rules, of those 3000 papers, ~5% will be resolved (i.e. attempts will be made to replicate). According to the article, 175 will be resolved. It's unclear to me who exactly will do that work but I would guess it's people behind replications markets dot com (they are funded by DARPA). The rules say that no one knows ahead of time which papers will be resolved so I assume the ~5% (or 175) will be chosen by random.

The data in the article seems to be based on what the forecasters predicted, not which papers actually replicated (that work hasn't been done yet...or at least hasn't been made public). The author of the article is assuming that the forecasters are accurate. To back up this assumption, he cites previous studies showing that markets are good at this kind of thing.

The tone is ranty but, by participating in the markets, the author is putting his money where his mouth is.