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by jamsiedaly 2101 days ago
The bigger issue here is that this man was able to convince "industry veterans" to give him massive amounts of money. You can see through him in a heart beat because you're technically savvy. Clearly the people running these automakers are not.
5 comments

It doesn't surprise me in the slightest why he was able to convince deep pocketed "industry veterans" to fund him, and actually understanding the social dynamics at play is important for understanding society at large (and can be very helpful when it comes to making money).

There is a metric shit ton of pressure on these legacy automakers to compete with Tesla. Sure, you may think Tesla is a relatively small slice now, but the leaders at these companies are extremely scared of falling behind technologically to the point where they are uncompetitive. I'm quite sure a lot of people at GM were skeptical, but I bet a lot of them also did the subconscious calculation "What's worse for my career, losing out on a deal with an innovator like Nikola and falling even further behind, or going with Nikola, in which case if it fails we're not much worse off then we were originally?" Against this backdrop it's easy to see how a scammer can take advantage of this dynamic and even play legacy players off each other, e.g. "Well, you could choose not to invest in us, but then think how much further behind Tesla you'll be. And you know we're talking to Ford, too."

Seriously just watch any of the guys rants on YouTube, you don't have to be technically savvy to see through his bullshit. Watch any of his interviews on YouTube. I like this one with Jim Cramer trying to nail him down on his pre-sales number on the Badger and laughing at him later

https://youtu.be/OPhN8saJkAI?t=377

Amazingly tall pile of crap that guy is spewing. In the video he's touting their lack of product / development focus as a virtue and claiming that they can work on four or five projects (vehicles) more efficiently than one, despite having no viable vehicles. Maybe we should consider his premise: Nikola can fail to build four or five vehicles as well as they can fail to build one.
That was painful to watch. He sounds like a politician - talking non-stop and not answering a single question in the process.
There might not be many options for investors that want exposure to the EV market but missed the boat on Tesla. I'm sure plenty thought it could be the Lyft to Tesla's Uber.

It will really only fail when the money dries up. As long as they can keep raising money, they can keep the fantasy alive long enough to lure in other investors.

I mean you could google the guy and find the book he wrote _on running scams in NY_.
The domestic auto industry is a jobs program not a real business.
I can't tell if you're serious or trolling. Ford sold close to a million F-150s alone in 2019 (the best-selling vehicle in America), with the F-series line doing $42 billion in revenue on its own. The domestic auto industry is very much a real business with real revenue and real profitability.
And VW didn't sell any pickup trucks in the US but it's not because Ford outcompeted them.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken_tax

Tundra is manufactured in the US and doesn't sell anywhere near as many. Other manufacturers are free to open production facilities in the US to avoid the tariff as well. Not sure what your point is...
Ford is permanently up to its eyeballs in debt and would not be a viable business without repeated government bailouts due to its history.

It isn't a very profitable market.

https://www.sfgate.com/business/fool/article/Why-Ford-Motor-...

And I assume you're referring to the automotive bailouts in 2008 when companies in many industries were falling apart and received bailouts or TARP funds? It was a rather unprecedented situation at the time, not really reflective of overall business viability.

Domestic OEMs have plenty of issues (poor innovation, arguably poor relative quality, unions, etc.) to criticize. Operating margins, which tend to be on par with foreign OEMs, aren't really one of them. And it really depends on what you're comparing it to to make a determination about how profitable the sector is. Pretty much nothing is as profitable as SaaS, but 4-5% is nothing to laugh at.

Running a business with high leverage is a totally valid way to make money. That said, Ford is doing very poorly. Their stock has lost like 60% since 2011. If you lose 60% during the greatest bull market the world has ever seen, well, maybe you should go out of business.
Which everyone should be made aware of, because it's worth asking how did it get that way, and how do we prevent other industries from suffering this fate.

It's been modern economic theory that has encouraged this stripping of US industry...unfortunately it's a lauded theory.