Ask HN: What is the true death rate from Covid 19?

[joflicu]

CDC says (as of now) 190,000 people dead. There are pushbacks saying that most of the deaths are in nursing homes caused by the policy of sending sick people home. Another complicating factor is the number of people with pre-existing conditions. How does one come up with a true representative cost of the pandemic? (Maybe something that worked in the past e.g. spanish flu?)

[rogerkirkness]

Many studies tend to find that the actual death rate hovers around 1.5x the official count. And like you say, there's significant confounding, so it would be hard to say. Further, it's clear that is can cause heart and lung problems that persist post infection. So the "true" number is somewhat uncountable, it would be the official count, times 1.5, minus relevant confounding (weighted).

An additional point to what you listed is that insurance companies get a "bonus" for a covid death, which as ridiculous as it sounds is intended to incentivize care during pandemics like this (for example of what this is intended to prevent, see spanish healthcare workers walking away from care homes).

[leahey]

The insurance bonus is actually intended to incentivize coverage, rather than care, and act as a stimulus to the insurance industry. I'm not endorsing that policy, just stating it as plainly as I can.

[verdverm]

> How does one come up with a true representative cost of the pandemic?

I don't think we'll ever know. It touched just about everything we do on this planet. Unprecedented effects, outcomes, and changes.

- died from COVID directly or exasperated

- life shortened by Covid, but most diseases have this effect as well

- life shortened by being locked down, mental health, not exercising

- died because they did not seem treatment / screening for other diseases (stroke, cancer)

Then there is all the economics stuff, which I'm not sure you asking about (to be part of the "cost")

[wtt604]

In the same way that people kept dying after 9/11 from all sorts of cancers from concrete dust etc, we won't know this figure for decades, certainly until all longterm complications are known.

Do you count people whose lungs are at 70% then die of respiratory complications?

[ddingus]

Yeah we should, just like we do other diseases.

As the data comes in we can publish weighted risks.

For now, basic outcomes tell the basic story. People can weigh it from there.

[ddingus]

I am going by outcomes.

That is dead people/recovered people, and that number world wide is roughly 5 percent. My local numbers are higher, like almost 8 percent last I looked. Some places are lower. New Zealand is pretty much 10!

Edit: I see 4.5 percent globally now. It has approached 7 before.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

People dividing by infections are actually getting a lower best case number. Think everyone infected not dying. Secondly, the cases in progress are not outcomes yet, so comparing them against known dead people reduces risk perception by over counting non outcomes and dividing into known outcomes.

One could get an upper bound and assume all infected will die for a similar worst case number.

People dividing by population are computing something different. Not death rate.

Some want to argue about Covid causing deaths in people with existing conditions. True, but that does not make the basic outcome equation wrong. It does speak to some people having more risk.

Some want to argue about testing. And that we don't see all recovered cases. Both of those things do vary the metric some, but as an overall risk assessment, those errors do not change things much.

Note, recovered stats are no longer widely shown in the US. I leave you to make your own conclusions.

Finally, go look at the cruise ships and their numbers. Little test beds. 5 percent is entirely plausible.

Until I see a lot more data, I am going with outcomes.

Global stats show roughly 5 percent. That's high enough to continue to be careful.

If you are sick with something else, it will be higher.

If you are old, or feeble, or have some conditions, it will be higher.

BE careful. There are dead people in my circles already.

Also, not dying could mean being impacted. I don't know what those numbers really are, but they could be 20 percent. Depends on what data. We probably don't really know.

Heart problems.

Lung problems.

Brain problems.

All are being reported.

I myself survived this thing. Was sicker than I ever want to be again. Hoping I don't have post Covid problems.

Wish I did not have to worry about it.

As the data comes in, the death rate will change, and so will the post recovery conditions numbers.

In this pandemic, basically becoming endemic, it will pay off to be conservative, IMHO.

It is novel and that means all of us want to know more than we actually do. The only real cure for that is time for the people doing the science to get it done.

Ideally, politics stays mostly out of the way. Ideally...