[dmytrish]

A look from behind the southern border of Belarus: in 2014, Ukraine had had peaceful protests for more than two months before street violence started and ended. Then Crimea was annexed. Then the separatist war started, where most of weapons on the separatist side were supplied by Russia. Ukraine is a country with the same post-Soviet culture of "whoever owns weapons is suspicious", just like Belarus.

My point is that you don't "end up like Ukraine or Syria" by your own choice, and Belarus's only choice may well be between a "civil" war (i.e. proxy war with Russians) or being bent by Lukashenko to submit. I still hope that Belorusians will make it peacefully (Belarus is smaller and more unified than Ukraine), but I am afraid that it's not up to Belarusians to decide as long as Russia has the influence it has there.