[nfw2]

Fauci spoke on this matter recently. He said that phase 3 completion is not dependent on time, but rather dependent on the number of events (infections) in the control group.

This to me suggests the main blocker for approval now is proving efficacy, and that we already have enough data to conduct the time-based safety analysis you described with reasonable confidence.

There is another potential safety concern that the vaccine could exacerbate COVID infections. I don't know how critical this concern is, but it would also be constrained by number of infection events, not time.