[quarterdime]

I think this market has been headed for collapse since well before coronavirus. https://www.propublica.org/article/whistleblower-wall-street...

The industry is reading off the exact same script as 2008 but with all sorts of increasingly silly financial instruments based off commercial real estate. Because of course commercial real estate is different.

This is crazy and has been going on for a while. I fear this is every bit as big as 2008. A lot of wealth is about to evaporate. A lot of it from the middle class. I notice that the market is UP and Americans are killing one another in the streets. What is this going to look like when unemployment hits 30%? Our whole economy runs on credit. At some point the banks are going to get squeezed by this. Nobody is going to sign a lease on commercial property in 2020. Businesses need to borrow money. The fed is trying to print money fast enough to shrink the problem, but I do not think there is any way for them to stay ahead.

Totally unrelated question. That guy Jared Kushner: does anyone remember what industry he's in?

[PeterStuer]

Where was the lesson in 'if only we screw up bad enough we will be showered perpetually in lavish bailout wealth'?

[quarterdime]

Yeah, I think the lesson was indeed pretty well learned. My initial comment was off though--I said that the banks hold a lot of this debt. I reread and saw that reddit poster claimed that the banks hold very little and pass it down the line to funds. Maybe they hold little enough that they will be fine. Maybe they hold enough that they will need a bailout. Either way they win. I agree with you. Their success with mortgage backed securities last time appears to have inspired a sequel.