| > The Gates foundation has a interest in keeping estimates of the population down low. The paper says: Role of the funding source
The funders had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. All authors had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication. > But it's not how it will go down, look at attempts 80 year ago what they thought 2020 would be > Not a great example, but it's well under - > https://www.ssa.gov/oact/NOTES/pdf_studies/study033.pdf They estimated 2025 US population to be between 225M and 392M depending on the projection methodology used. The current population of the US is 328M, so this seems pretty good for an estimate 70 years ago! > Longevity will mean increased fertility. This would seem a bold claim. It hasn't anywhere in the world so far, and the correlation between increased longevity and decreased birthrates is very strong. |
The Funders know how it'll come out.
Studies don't take into account the leaps that will happen because we don't know what they are. Things don't just continue as the previous 80 years. These jumps happened even when we didn't have the internet to super charge stuff.
> 2025 US population to be between 225M and 392M
That's 2050 in the document.
2020 is 210 - 305 million estimate. (pdf p29)
> decreased birthrates is very strong.
But not fertility. You won't be living to 120 without being a healthy and fertile 60 year old. It's fun to have work as number one for 20 years, but if it's easy to have kids in your 40's without IVF things will change.